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In the FCS Huddle: QB openings not for the feint of heartNCAA Football Betting Lines02/06/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - You don't have to be Tim Tebow to be the most scrutinized quarterback around. The light in the microscope usually shines brightest on any team's signal- caller. Considering big expectations follow the sport's marquee position, it only intensifies for the quarterback who is replacing a highly accomplished senior. Such situations will be prevalent this coming season across the Football Championship Subdivision. There are some big shoes to fill nationally. Whoever steps in for Bo Levi Mitchell at Eastern Washington faces one of the more daunting tasks. Mitchell, of course, was the Most Outstanding Player in the Eagles' 2010 FCS championship game win and captured the 2011 Walter Payton Award (sponsored by Fathead.com) as the nation's outstanding player. His successor, who is trying to replace Mitchell's 7,505 passing yards and 70 touchdown passes of the last two seasons, could be either junior Anthony Vitto or redshirt freshman Vernon Adams. Vitto has more experience in offensive coordinator Aaron Best's system and holds the top spot going into spring practice in late March, but Adams is more mobile - he passed for 5,234 yards and rushed for another 1,263 yards in his final two high school seasons - and was the scout team's offensive player of the year this past season. The situation could change if Kyle Padron, who unseated Mitchell as SMU's starting quarterback in 2009, comes to EWU. The big Texan (6-foot-4, 233 pounds) is seeking to transfer from SMU and is expected to visit with the Eagles' program. Lehigh's Chris Lum tied for second behind Mitchell in the Payton Award voting and his replacement is much more set with senior Mike Colvin. He has good size - 6-foot-2 and 230 pounds - with excellent arm strength. He already has played in 22 career games, often as a change of pace run/pass-option quarterback. Colvin has rushed for seven touchdowns in his career, although he struggled in his only career start, replacing an injured Lum in a game at New Hampshire two years ago. Northern Iowa's Jared Lanpher played well against Youngstown State last season - throwing for 238 yards and two touchdowns - when he started in place of an injured Tirrell Rennie. The redshirt sophomore saw action in four other games and could have the inside track to replacing Rennie this coming season, although redshirt freshman Sawyer Kollmorgan has also impressed coaches since he arrived on campus. At Chattanooga, quarterback B.J. Coleman hopes to be NFL-bound, but he missed a lot of time as a senior because of a shoulder injury. It opened the door for Terrell Robinson to replace him and win Southern Conference Freshman of the Week honors three times last season. He's a run-first quarterback, having rushed for 417 yards and thrown for only 336 yards. Robinson will have competition from redshirt freshman Jacob Huesman, son of Mocs head coach Russ Huesman. His playing style is similar to Robinson's. New Liberty head coach Turner Gill has to replace do-everything quarterback Mike Brown. The most experienced of the Flames' returnees is redshirt senior Tyler Brennan, who has appeared in 22 career games - often in mop-up time - but was injured during the second half of last season. He's more of a drop- back passer than the dual-threat Brown. Redshirt junior Brian Hudson is also a pocket passer and has the strongest arm among the signal-callers. Still another of Brown's possible successors, redshirt sophomore Gabe Henderson, follows the Brown script in that he was a wide receiver in 2010 - catching 10 passes - before transitioning to a quarterback last year, when he was a redshirt. Josh Woodrum, coming off his redshirt freshman season, has the high school accolades, though not the experience of his Liberty teammates. Jackson State signed one the FCS' top incoming freshmen last week in Lamontiez Ivy out of East St. Louis. He will get a shot at replacing Casey Therriault, although 6-5 redshirt senior Dedric McDonald has been the backup for two years and redshirt sophomore Tevin Chapman is a good runner who is also experienced in the system. Jacksonville has to replace Josh McGregor, who ended his career 23rd on the all-time FCS list with 11,230 passing yards and sixth in touchdown passes with 111. Trevius Folston and Kade Bell are returning, but a signee or two will join them at the Pioneer Football League power. The 6-7 Folston backed up McGregor as a freshman last season, while Bell, the son of Jacksonville head coach Kerwin Bell, redshirted in his first season. Plenty of other FCS programs are looking for a new starting quarterback after losing a key senior. Included are New Hampshire (Kevin Decker), Central Arkansas (Nathan Dick), Norfolk State (Chris Walley), Georgia Southern (Jaybo Shaw), Richmond (Aaron Corp) and Wofford (Mitch Allen). Also, there's Holy Cross (Ryan Taggart), Samford (Dustin Taliaferro), Furman (Chris Forcier), Indiana State (Ronnie Fouch), Maine (Warren Smith), Portland State (Connor Kavanaugh), Southeast Missouri State (Matt Scheible), South Dakota (Dante Warren), Brown (Kyle Newhall-Caballero), Yale (Patrick Witt) and Butler (Andrew Huck).
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Sportsbooks to bet on footballRecently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it. He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games. "Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote. He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games. Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk. Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible. Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines. Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy. With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season. Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas). And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.) The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors. While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger. Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under. One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it. Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami. What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5. That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well. MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple. "The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money. "At the end of the day, we liked the home team." So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams. In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish. MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover. The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing. Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed. MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash. To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards. |
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